ALL OUR PUBLICATIONS

All OUR Publications

All OUR Publications

Markets Will be Volatile, Except when Everyone Expects It

Seasoned traders know that when everyone expects a ‘near-certain’ outcome, and prepares their investment portfolio for it, the opposite tends to happen

Is Big Tech a Bubble?

A long standing doctrine in successful investing was to buy stocks that were trading cheaply based on an objective measuring method (price vs. book value / earnings / sales)…

What Impact will US Elections Have on the Stock Market?

Global stock market performance from here to the end of the year will be heavily influenced by the US elections in November

The Role of Gold In a Portfolio

Gold has gained 66% in the last two years and just hit a new all-time high of $2075 last week, before pulling back sharply by over $200 in four days

The Second Wave Is Here

The much feared second wave of virus infections has arrived. Many have been worrying about such an event which may follow the 1918 Spanish Flu, causing a higher death toll

The disconnect between stock prices and the economy

Data shows that not only do stocks not follow changes in GDP, it’s actually GDP that follows changes in stock prices

Superforecasters: Wisdom of crowds versus trading on emotions

There are facts, informed extrapolations from analogies to other viruses, and with so much unknowns, most comments are just opinion or pure speculation

Investing during virus outbreaks

A plan based on hard data is the best way to analyse a changing situation

End of the Year and End of the Decade: What to Expect

A decade ago, the prevailing investment view was that the world had reached Peak Oil, and oil companies were widely recommended as a core long-term allocation.

Throwing Money Out of Helicopters

Ben Bernake, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, earned the nickname ‘Helicopter Ben’ when he suggested in 2002 that helicopter money could always be used to stave off deflation.

Manufacturing Slow Down vs. Recession

On 1st October the US Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing data came out much worse than expected, causing a 2-day drop of 2.9%.

Bonds That Eat Your Money

The phrase ‘This Time it’s Different’ is described as the four most dangerous words in investing.

When the pursuit of wealth does not bring happiness

“DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO” WAS ATTRIBUTED TO PREACHERS, BUT WOULD WORK JUST AS WELL FOR THE INVESTMENT ADVISORY BUSINESS.

Double or Nothing

How Different Investment Return Calculations Can Show Opposite Results for the Same Portfolio.

Too Good to be True?

STARTING IN 1990, AN EXCLUSIVE INVESTMENT FUND PRODUCED AN ENVIABLE TRACK RECORD.

Yield Curve Inversion = Imminent Recession?

BEARS LOVE INDICATORS TO JUSTIFY THEIR GLOOMY OUTLOOK.

Investor Pessimism: Is the World Outlook Getting Worse?

THE QUEUE WAS TEN CHILDREN LONG, WHEN THE FIRST ONE IN LINE PASSED OUT, CAUSING SOME COMMOTION.

When the Market Does Not React the Way You Expect

“DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO” WAS ATTRIBUTED TO PREACHERS, BUT WOULD WORK JUST AS WELL FOR THE INVESTMENT ADVISORY BUSINESS.

Your Investment Outlook vs. Consensus

IT’S A GOOD IDEA FROM TIME TO TIME TO PAUSE AND ASSESS HOW SIMILAR YOUR INVESTMENT OUTLOOK IS TO THE CONSENSUS OF CHIEF ECONOMISTS AND OTHER ASSORTED FORECASTERS.

What to Expect in the Current Bear Market

WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN, WITH THE US BEING THE ONLY BRIGHT SPOT GLOBALLY

Getting High on Bubbles

IN HIS FAMOUS SPEECH ON ‘IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE’, GREENSPAN COMMENTED ABOUT HOW DIFFICULT IT WAS TO RECOGNIZE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF BUBBLES IF WE SAW THEM.

Liquidity Squeezes and Emerging Market Crises

IN FINANCIAL MARKETS VERY FEW THINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REPEAT REGULARLY LIKE CLOCKWORK.

Interviewing for a Finance Position

THE SINGLE BEST INVESTMENT ANYONE CAN MAKE IS TO INVEST IN OURSELVES, FOR A BETTER CAREER AND HIGHER EARNINGS PROSPECTS.

Investing Irresponsibly

ASKING WHETHER ONE SHOULD INVEST IN A SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE WAY SEEMS LIKE A TRIVIAL QUESTION WITH AN OBVIOUS ANSWER

Higher Interest Rates means Bonds and Leverage Don’t Mix

STOCKS ARE STORIES, BONDS ARE MATHEMATICS.

A Blueprint to Navigate Every Bear Market

THREE WEEKS AGO OVER DINNER MY 87 YEAR OLD FATHER ASKED ME HOW MUCH MONEY I HAD MADE FOR OUR CLIENTS IN OUR EQUITY STRATEGY IN 2017.

Do Commodities Have Any Place in a Portfolio

COMMODITIES ENJOYED SIGNIFICANT INTEREST FROM INVESTORS FROM YEAR 2000 ONWARDS.

Investing as a Beauty Contest

BUY LITHIUM MINING STOCKS BECAUSE DEMAND FOR BATTERIES WILL SKY-ROCKET AS EVERY CAR MAKER GOES ELECTRIC.

The Complacency of Low Volatility

I GAVE A TALK AT AN INVESTMENT SEMINAR RECENTLY WHICH WAS TITLED “INVESTING MYTHS: DE-BUNKING WIDELY ACCEPTED TRUISMS”.

Global Transparency and its Impact on Investors

MANY INVESTORS HOLD INVESTMENT ASSETS OFFSHORE, OFTEN UNDER INVESTMENT HOLDING COMPANIES.

Pervasive Fear

THE BEST INVESTMENT ADVICE I EVER RECEIVED WAS: “THE DEGREE OF UNPROFITABLE ANXIETY IN AN INVESTOR’S LIFE CORRESPONDS DIRECTLY TO THE AMOUNT OF TIME SPENT DWELLING ON HOW AN INVESTMENT SHOULD BE ACTING, RATHER THAN HOW IT ACTUALLY IS ACTING.”

Global Trump-Reflation

IN THE WEEKS LEADING UP TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, EQUITIES FELL ANYTIME TRUMP GOT A BUMP IN THE POLLS, AND GAINED WHEN CLINTON ROSE IN THE POLLS.

Bond Investors: Caveat Emptor

THE LAST TIME A BOND BEAR MARKET WAS GETTING STARTED, I WAS STILL IN DIAPERS. IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY INVESTOR WHO LIVED THROUGH AND VIVIDLY REMEMBERS THE IMPACT OF LOSING MONEY YEAR AFTER YEAR IN BONDS, BUT…

Are Target Date/ Life Cycle investments right for your CPF?

AS WE GET OLDER AND INCH CLOSER TO OUR RETIREMENT AGE, WE INTUITIVELY UNDERSTAND THAT WE ARE SUPPOSED TO TAKE LESS RISK IN OUR INVESTMENTS, SHIFTING THE FOCUS FROM CAPITAL GAINS…

Brexit – Another Unexpected Event with Zero Long Term Impact

‘BREXIT’, THE UK VOTE TO EXIT THE EU, CAPTIVATED THE FINANCIAL WORLD IN THE END OF JUNE.

“Sell in May and Go Away”

INVESTING IS FULL OF MEMORABLE ONE-LINERS WHICH PURPORT TO GIVE GOOD INVESTMENT ADVICE THAT IS ALSO EASY TO REMEMBER.

“How are you ****ing us?” — The Big Short

ON A RECENT FLIGHT BACK TO SINGAPORE I HAD THE PLEASURE OF WATCHING THE MOVIE “THE BIG SHORT”

Is your Portfolio in line with Consensus Views?

AT THE BEGINNING OF EVERY YEAR IT’S A USEFUL EXERCISE TO GATHER THE MARKET CONSENSUS OF CHIEF ECONOMISTS AND CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICERS, IN ORDER TO ASSESS WHERE YOUR OWN MARKET POSITIONING STANDS AGAINST THE PREVAILING VIEW

It’s Always 1979 Somewhere

1979 GAVE INVESTORS AN ORIGIN FOR ANOTHER INDICATOR FOR CONTRARIAN SENTIMENT, WHICH WAS LATER DUBBED THE MAGAZINE COVER INDICATOR

A guaranteed loss over five years

WHY WOULD ANYONE DECIDE TO MAKE SUCH AN INVESTMENT? HISTORICALLY ECONOMISTS HAVE DEBATED NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, BUT ONLY IN THEORY

Proper Planning

NORMALLY THE END OF THE YEAR IS PRIME TIME FOR FORECASTERS TO GIVE US THEIR BEST IDEAS FOR NEXT 12 MONTHS

Euro yields

10-YEAR SPANISH BONDS YIELDS JUST HIT A YIELD OF 2.17% P.A. AS I WRITE THIS. THIS IS THE LOWEST BORROWING COSTS THE COUNTRY HAS EXPERIENCED IN THE LAST 200 YEARS, WHEN EUROPE WAS LED BY MONARCHIES AND NAPOLEON WAS PLOTTING HIS CONQUEST OF SPAIN

Modi-Mania

THE FIRST LINE OF RUDYARD KIPLING’S POEM ABOUT STOICISM IN THE FACE OF ADVERSITY HAS BECOME AN INVESTMENT TRUISM: “KEEP YOUR HEAD WHEN ALL ABOUT YOU ARE LOSING THEIRS”

Leverage

MY FIRST INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO BLEW UP DUE TO EXCESSIVE LEVERAGE WHEN I WAS 19 YEARS OLD. HAVING CONCLUDED THAT I WAS UNLUCKY, I PROCEEDED TO BLOW UP MY SECOND PORTFOLIO THREE YEARS LATER